For those who don’t know, COP31 will be the 31st Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). According to the decision taken at the COP30 summit in Brazil, this event is planned to be held in Antalya, Türkiye, between 9-20 November, 2026.
The aim of these summits is for countries to negotiate new commitments and implementation steps towards the Paris Agreement targets (emission reduction, adaptation, financing, etc.). COPs, attended by world leaders, ministers, negotiators, scientists, companies, and NGOs, generally attract tens of thousands of participants.
COP31 Information
Let’s list what’s currently certain for the COP31 summit:
- Host country/city: Türkiye – Antalya
- Presidency model (Türkiye–Australia): Following the agreement reached at COP30, Türkiye will be the physical host and President of COP31, while Australia will assume the role of “President of Negotiations,” playing a prominent role in managing the negotiation process; furthermore, Pre-COP is planned to be held in the Pacific.
- The backbone of the agenda: Building on the “implementation” line of COP30, strengthening NDCs (national contribution statements), climate finance, adaptation, and just transition will be the main topics of COP31.
For Türkiye, this summit is expected to increase the country’s visibility in global climate diplomacy, accelerate national climate policies, and create a significant economic and tourism impact for Antalya. Now let’s get into the details:
Issues Carried Over from COP30
COP30 put the problems on the table but left the solutions for COP31. Let’s list the issues carried over from the COP30 – Belém (Brazil) summit to the COP31 Antalya (Türkiye) summit:
- NDC (National Determined Contributions) updates: A declaration of each country’s national contribution to combating global climate change under the Paris Agreement. Countries declare their emission reduction and adaptation targets according to their own conditions and capacities. These declarations are updated periodically and are expected to become more ambitious over time. The emphasis on the 1.5°C target and the calls for alignment with the Paris Agreement’s temperature target are retained in the text from COP30.
- Increasing adaptation financing: This refers to large economies providing easier access to financing for countries that want to transition to energy but face financial difficulties. Targets/commitments aimed at increasing adaptation financing were prominent at COP30; However, there are also controversial criticisms regarding the timeline and binding nature of the agreements.
- Fossil fuel use: The COP30 final decision text did not include a strong statement such as “phasing out fossil fuels”; instead, some countries advocated for progress around a voluntary roadmap outside the UN process.
- “Just Transition Mechanism”: This mechanism was accepted; however, there are criticisms regarding its funding/scale (the mechanism exists, but the funding/binding nature is considered weak).
Outcomes for Türkiye
The possible agenda and outcomes of the COP31 Antalya summit, to be organized between November 9-20, 2026, for Türkiye can be summarized in 5 points as follows:
1) National Target Update (NDC) and 2030/2053 Roadmap
- Türkiye is expected to link its current climate targets, emission reduction by 2030, and net-zero status by 2053 to a clearer sectoral roadmap (energy, industry, transportation, buildings).
- At COPs, countries are under pressure to make “target statements + implementation plans.”
In my opinion, Türkiye should surprise everyone at this summit by revising the target date they set for 2053 to 2035 and inviting all participating countries to make zero carbon emissions a priority policy. Otherwise, the climate crisis, which continues to worsen every year, will continue to deepen.
2) Energy Transition: Renewability + Efficiency + Moving Away from Fossil Fuels
- Topics from COP28 such as “moving away from fossil fuels” and “trebling renewables / doubling efficiency (2030)” should be forced to become an implementation timetable at COP31.
- For Türkiye, this could mean more concrete messages regarding grid investments, storage, permitting processes, energy efficiency, and the future of coal.
In my opinion, Türkiye should announce a transition to 100% renewable energy by 2030 and confirm that it will close all fossil fuel power plants. These action plans will also enable Türkiye to position itself as a thought leader among all countries on these issues.
3) Adaptation and disaster resilience (focus on fire, flood, and drought)
- Antalya’s hosting is suitable for Türkiye to create a “showcase” in the field of adaptation investments (early warning, water management, urban infrastructure, agricultural resilience) based on fire, drought, and flood risks.
- This axis tends to be a strong theme at COP31.
Türkiye should announce new urban planning and regulations to increase disaster resilience. According to these plans, new buildings should be designed and constructed with a more horizontal architecture, following a specific logic and without compromising the established system. They should provide all the comforts for the people living in them, while minimizing loss of life and property in potential disasters.
4) Access to climate finance: Grant emphasis, low-cost capital, and project banks
- Within the framework of the “New Collective Climate Finance Goal (NCQG),” the emphasis is on non-debt-creating instruments (grants/guarantees, etc.) and accelerating access to finance, especially for developing countries.
- Türkiye is expected to announce project pool/investment packages to facilitate access to finance during COP31.
To support countries in achieving energy transition, all kinds of financing facilities (grants, low-interest loans with long terms, etc.) need to be provided. For this, Türkiye and Australia should take the lead and ensure the establishment of the system and announce it at COP31.
5) Carbon markets and ETS alignment (Article 6 + EU CBAM impact)
- Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, with its carbon market rules and transparency standards, accelerates countries’ alignment with their own systems.
- For Türkiye, this means bringing issues such as a national ETS (emissions trading system), carbon pricing, and preparation for the impact of the EU’s CBAM (border carbon adjustment) to the COP31 agenda more clearly.
A well-functioning carbon emissions trading system should be set up in Türkiye. Türkiye should prepare well for this issue, make the necessary announcements at the summit it hosts, and set an example for countries that do not have or have not established systems like ETS and CBAM.
Two important goals that can be set
I hope that important decisions will be made at this summit next November under Türkiye’s leadership, and that positive breakthroughs will occur in the fight against the climate crisis. We must now take seriously the issues of global warming, climate change and crisis, the droughts we are experiencing, the melting of the polar ice caps, the evaporation of our waters, the increase in disasters, the rising and warming of sea levels, and many other natural events.
Türkiye should make the best use of the COP31 summit, which will be organized within its own borders. In my opinion, Türkiye needs to take the initiative to accelerate the implementation of thousands of tasks that need to be done to leave a more livable world for future generations. To this end, it should first aim to do what needs to be done in this regard within Türkiye and announce this at the COP31 summit. Here are two important goals that can be set:
– 100% renewable energy by 2030.
– A country of approximately 100 million people with zero carbon emission
